Compare · UN World Population Prospects 2024

Kenya and South Africa, side by side

Kenya in 2026: half the people are older than 21. South Africa: half are older than 30.

UN estimates for mid-2023: Kenya 55,339,002 people · South Africa 63,212,384

Kenya 58.6 million people Half are older than 21 3 in 100 are 65 or older

South Africa 65.5 million people Half are older than 30 7 in 100 are 65 or older

How to read this: each pyramid stacks a place’s people by age — babies at the bottom, the oldest at the top, men on the left and women on the right. A wide bottom means many children; a wide top means many older people.

Compare shapes Compare sizes

Each bar is a share of its own place’s people, so a small country and a large one can be read side by side.

Year 2026 · UN projection

estimatesprojections

men women projected

Verified 2026-09-30 · 73 canaries

KEN × ZAF · 2026 · age groups

If each place were 100 people

Shrink each population to 100 people and count them. Dots are children under 15, filled squares are people aged 15 to 64, and open squares are people 65 and over. The picture follows the year slider above.

Kenya

Children, under 15: 36
Aged 15 to 64: 61
Aged 65 and over: 3

South Africa

Children, under 15: 26
Aged 15 to 64: 67
Aged 65 and over: 7

KEN × ZAF · families and lifetimes

Children, and how long lives last

At today's rates, a woman in Kenya would have about 3.1 children in her lifetime. In South Africa, about 2.2. Babies born this year can expect about 64 years of life in Kenya and about 67 in South Africa.

Children per woman, 2026

Each figure is one child: how many children a woman would have in her lifetime at that year’s rates.

Kenya 3.1

South Africa 2.2

The dashed line at 2.1 is about what it takes for each generation to replace the one before it, leaving migration aside.

How long a newborn can expect to live, 2026

Each block is ten years of life, if the death rates of that year stayed the same all life long.

Kenya 64 years

South Africa 67 years

Hatched marks are UN projections (medium variant), not measurements.

KEN × ZAF · 1950–2100 · how many

How big, and where they are heading

South Africa is the larger of the two, with about 10% more people than Kenya: 65.5 million to 58.6 million.

Since 1950 the two have moved differently: Kenya's population is 10.2 times what it was in 1950, while South Africa's population is 5.0 times what it was in 1950.

Looking ahead: Kenya's population is expected to peak in 2098, and South Africa's population is still growing in 2100. The UN expects Kenya to have more people than South Africa from 2040. In 2100: 104 million in Kenya, 94.3 million in South Africa (UN projection, medium).

Show the numbers

Year	Kenya: people	South Africa: people	Kenya: half older than	South Africa: half older than	Kenya: children per woman	South Africa: children per woman	Kenya: life expectancy	South Africa: life expectancy
1950	5.76918 million	13.0385 million	17.0	20.2	7.39	6.03	36.9	43.1
1960	7.69531 million	16.4402 million	15.6	18.9	7.65	6.11	48.5	52.6
1970	11.3688 million	22.2800 million	14.3	18.7	7.94	5.63	54.1	55.7
1980	16.0185 million	29.5189 million	14.4	19.4	7.53	4.78	59.2	60.0
1990	22.8926 million	40.7463 million	15.3	21.3	6.13	3.72	58.3	62.9
2000	30.6429 million	47.1597 million	16.6	21.8	5.14	2.41	56.1	58.4
2010	41.5986 million	52.3441 million	17.9	24.6	4.45	2.44	60.9	58.9
2023	55.3390 million	63.2124 million	20.5	29.2	3.21	2.22	63.6	66.1
2030*	63.1022 million	68.1614 million	22.4	30.6	2.92	2.10	64.9	67.3
2040*	74.1089 million	74.0356 million	25.0	32.0	2.61	1.98	66.5	68.9
2050*	83.5932 million	79.1773 million	27.3	33.3	2.35	1.89	67.9	70.3
2060*	91.5696 million	83.4435 million	29.8	35.0	2.18	1.84	69.2	71.7
2070*	97.8257 million	86.8570 million	32.4	36.2	2.04	1.80	70.4	73.1
2080*	101.744 million	89.6741 million	34.7	37.2	1.95	1.77	71.7	74.5
2090*	103.764 million	92.1607 million	36.6	38.3	1.89	1.75	73.0	75.9
2100*	104.195 million	94.3144 million	38.5	39.3	1.84	1.74	74.4	77.3

* UN projection, medium variant. People at mid-year; ages and life expectancy in years.

KEN − ZAF · 1950–2100 · every age

Which ages each place has more of

Each column is a year and each row an age, from babies at the bottom to 100 at the top. The shade of a cell shows which place has more of its people at that age — the key beside the picture tells you which shade is Kenya and which is South Africa, and the in-between shade means the same. Because it compares shares, a small place and a large one can be compared fairly.

236 countries · 1950–2100

Where they sit among all countries

Every country in the world, every year from 1950 to 2100. The grey cloud shows where most countries are; Kenya is drawn in solid blue squares and South Africa in open orange squares, so you can see whether each is ahead of the crowd, behind it or in the middle.

More comparisons

Keep exploring

Each place on its own: Kenya · South Africa. Or pick any two places with the boxes at the top of this page.

Other comparisons

Apparatus

Sources and method

Both sides of this comparison come from the UN Population Division's World Population Prospects 2024 — the same release, the same tables, counted to 2023 and projected beyond it on the medium variant. That shared origin is what a comparison rests on.

The working behind the median age, the rounding in the “100 people” pictures and the reason the regions are kept out of the all-country views are all set out in the method.

There are 250 ready-made comparisons on this site. For anything else, name two places in the boxes at the top of the page.

Sources: UN WPP 2024 · flag-icons. Every source, its licence and how to cite it →

Verified 2026-09-30 · 73 canaries